Bitcoin Cash Analysis: BCH Forecast, News & Trading Analysis

Bitcoin Cash Analysis: BCH Forecast, News & Trading Analysis

6 months ago

    30th May 2019

    Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is currently priced at $474.25, its highest since November 2018. So, what is fuelling this price spike? Let’s take a look at some of the news surrounding BCH which may have dictated this price flow. Following that, we are going to check out some technical analysis to gain a better understanding as to how the price is behaving in different time frames.

    Bitcoin Cash Fundamental Analysis

    Here are some of the more important stories surrounding Bitcoin Cash:

    • Bitcoin Cash miners perform 51% attack.
    • Publicly listed Chinese firms mine Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
    • Cashscript creating smart contracts on Bitcoin Cash.
    • Bitcoin SV pumps following fake Binance listing news.

    Bitcoin Cash miners perform 51% attack

    The BTC.com and BTC.top mining pools were able to combine their hash rates to perform a 51% attack on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain and reverse some malicious transactions. In case you didn’t know, a 51% attack allows the attackers to reshape the blockchain, reverse transactions, and conduct random forks as and when they please.

    While this particular attack wasn’t done with any “evil” intentions, this move was still widely criticized by the Bitcoin Cash community. “Kiarahpromises,” a Bitcoin Cash developer, wrote:

    “To coordinate a reorg to revert unknown’s transactions. This is a 51% attack. The absolutely worst attack possible. It’s there in the whitepaper. What about (miner and developer) decentralized and uncensorable cash? Only when convenient?”

    The move had some supporters as well. BCH supporter Jonathan Silverblood said:

    “This is a very unfortunate situation, but it is also what proof of work actually is. The miners in this case did choose to drop prohashes block and from what I heard, it is because they deemed a transaction within it to have been invalid.”

    So, what exactly was the attack?

    Bitcoin podcast host, Guy Swann, tried to explain it with the following tweet:

    “Since the original split in 2017, there has been a significant number of coins accidentally sent to ‘anyone can spend’ addresses (due to [transaction] compatibility of sigs, but no #SegWit on #BCH), or possibly they’ve been replayed from #Bitcoin onto the #BCH network.

    When the unknown miner tried to take the coins themselves, [BTC.top and BTC.com] saw & immediately decided to re-organize and remove these [transactions], in favor of their own [transactions], spending the same P2SH coins, [and] many others.”

    Publicly listed Chinese firms mine Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash

    8btc’s Lylian Teng reported that some publicly listed Chinese firms have been secretly mining Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.

    • Huatie Hengan is a subsidiary of publicly listed company Huatie. Investors found out about their mining activities which cause an investigation from regulators.
    • Wholeasy, an internet game brand company in China, has also been mining coins. In fact, they have been so prolific that they have contributed 17.7% of Ebang’s miner sales in 2018.
    • RHY, a NEEQ-listed public company in China, has been building mining farms in places like Iran.

    Cashscript creating smart contracts on Bitcoin Cash

    Data website Coin Dance added a new project called “Cashscript,” which will help BCH enthusiasts to gain more understanding of the project. Created by software engineer Rosco Kalis, Cashscript will bring smart contract functionality to Bitcoin Cash’s network. Not only will this allow developers to use the peer-to-peer cash as a medium of exchange, but it will also execute unique decision-based transactions.

    As per Kalis, Cashscript is a high-level language that compiles down to Bitcoin Script. He explained:

    “With Cashscript we are mainly focusing on making that integration easier by providing a Javascript Software Development Kit (SDK) that allows you to plug in Cashscript contracts into any web application,” Kalis told news.Bitcoin.com. “For this workflow as well as the syntax of the language we took a lot of inspiration from Ethereum’s Solidity language and Web3.js / Truffle libraries….The goal with this is also to make it easier for developers of either community to get involved with the other.”

    Bitcoin SV pumps following fake Binance listing news

    As per coinmarketcap, Bitcoin SV has shot up by over 100% reaching its all-time high of $251.07. Dovey Wan, a Founding Partner at Primitive Ventures, observed that the catalyst behind this sudden pump was some “fake news” concerning Craig Wright (CSW), the “poster boy” of Bitcoin SV.

    It turns out that, someone posted a fake WeChat screenshot which Wan translated as follows:

    “CSW transferred 50k BTC from the biggest BTC wallet to Binance, which confirmed he is the real Satoshi. As such CZ will re-list BSV and make an official apology on Twitter.”

    This screenshot tricked a lot of gullible investors, which ultimately led to the pump. It could be a possibility that Bitcoin Cash also benefited from these investors.

    Technical Analysis

    For our technical analysis, we will be using Trading View’s charts. We will be looking at the following price charts:

    • Daily.
    • Weekly.
    • Monthly.
    • 4-Hour.
    • 2-Hour.
    • 1-Hour.

    BCH/USD daily chart

    • BCH/USD went up from $456.65 to $468.75 over this day.
    • Yesterday, BCH/USD managed to breach past resistance at $449.
    • The BCH/USD price is trending in an upwards channel.
    • The latest session went above the upper curve of the 20-day Bollinger band, but the bears managed to check the price and bring it back in.
    • The narrowing of the Bollinger band shows decreasing market volatility.
    • The price is trending above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA 200), SMA 100, SMA 50, and SMA 20 curves.
    • The relative strength index (RSI) indicator in the overbought zone, trending at 72.78.


    BCH/USD weekly chart

    • BCH/USD has had five bullish weeks in a row.
    • The price is trending upwards in a channel formation.
    • Over this week, the price has gone up from $432.15 to $468.75.
    • The Elliot oscillator shows four consecutive bullish sessions.

    BCH/USD monthly chart

    • The monthly BCH/USD charts show four consecutive bullish sessions.
    • The current upward trend follows six consecutive bearish sessions.
    • Over this month, BCH/USD went up from $253 to $468.75, charting a staggering 85% rise in price.

    BCH/USD 4-hour chart

    • The 4-hour BCH/USD price is currently consolidating in a flag formation.
    • Over the last few sessions, the 4-hour price has followed the pattern of a bullish breakout before a price consolidation session.
    • The market has found support on the green cloud of the Ichimoku indicator (20/60/120/30).
    • The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator shows seven consecutive bullish sessions.
    • Immediate resistance level lies at 480.50.

    BCH/USD 2-hour chart

    • After finding resistance on the upper curve of the 20-day Bollinger band, the price has been trending horizontally.
    • The 2-hour BCH/USD price broke through the support provided by the upward trending line.
    • The relative strength index (RSI) indicator is trending at 66.09.
    • The price is above the SMA 200, SMA 100, SMA 50, and SMA 20 curves.
    • The bears and bulls are wrestling around the $467 line.

    BCH/USD 1-hour chart

    • The 1-hour BCH/USD price broke out from the green cloud of the Ichimoku indicator.
    • Currently, the price is trending horizontally and it broke past the support provided by the upward trending line in the process.
    • The price is continually trending around the critical $467.25 level right.
    • The Elliot oscillator shows 13 consecutive bullish sessions with decreasing intensity.
    • The MACD indicator shows increasing bearish momentum as the MACD line has crossed over and diverged further from the signal line.

    Bitcoin Cash Future Behaviour

    Bitcoin Cash is currently priced at its highest since November 2018. However, the daily price chart shows us that the RSI indicator is trending in the overbought zone, which hints at an upcoming price correction. This is gains further credence when you look at the way the short-term price charts are trending.

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