Ethereum Analysis: ETH Forecast, News & Trading Analysis

Ethereum Analysis: ETH Forecast, News & Trading Analysis

4 months ago

    3rd June 2019

    Ethereum went down from $269.50 to $262.30 this Monday. Ethereum had a pretty bullish Sunday as it went up from $264.25 to $269.25. Currently, the bears have full control over the market and it looks like the price may go down even more over the day. Let’s take a look at some fundamental and technical analysis to gauge the current state of Ethereum.

    Ethereum Fundamental Analysis

    Here are the hottest news surrounding Ethereum:

    • Ethereum Foundation reveals $30 million plan.
    • Deloitte starts working on Ethereum.
    • Ethereum nears one million transactions.


    Ethereum Foundation reveals $30 million plan

    Ethereum Foundation revealed its $30 million plans for the next year. So, far, the Foundation achieved the following over last 12 months:

    • Working on ETH 2.0 clients by teams such as imbus, Prysm, Sigma Prime, and Substrate Shasper.
    • Working on ETH 1.x enhancements, such as “Alexey Akhunov’s research into stateless clients and state fees,” as well as “essential projects like Geth and Solidity.”
    • Working on the ZK-rollup, which can help Ethereum reach hundreds of transactions per second (without sharding) by using zero-knowledge proofs.
    • Working on ETHGlobal, which “hosts Ethereum hackathons around the world.”

    Here is how they are planning to spend $30 million over the next 12 months:

    • $19 million has been allocated for R&D on Ethereum 2.0 and for “more long-term investments like growing the academic community’s involvement in Ethereum technology.”
    • $8 million has been earmarked for supporting the present Ethereum ecosystem.
    • $3 million will be spent on supporting the developer community and raising awareness of Ethereum.


    Deloitte working on Ethereum

    Deloitte has partnered up with the Institute of Banking (IoB) along with three Irish banks, namely – Bank of Ireland, AIB, and Ulster Bank, to start using a staff data solution that is running on the blockchain. Deloitte has developed an Ethereum-based tool which is currently in beta but will facilitate a wide range of staff- related data management. It will be rolled out during the summer of 2020.

    The goal of the partnership is as follows:

    • Reduce annual costs.
    • Reduce risks.
    • Enhance user-experience for the employees and give them direct access to their digital wallets.
    • The tool will aid banks in regulation around the compliance with the Central Bank of Ireland’s Minimum Competency Code (MCC)

    Jane Howard, CEO of Ulster Bank, said about the partnership:

    “It made complete sense to collaborate with Bank of Ireland, AIB and the Institute on this project. It will enable banking professionals to maximize their professional development throughout their career, which will undoubtedly lead to a healthier banking industry in Ireland, which supports consumers, communities, and businesses to flourish.”


    Ethereum nears one million transactions

    As per Bitinfocharts, Ethereum exceeded 900,000 transactions on 16th May, 24th May, 27th May, 28th May, 29th May, and 1st June. A high of 956,751 transactions was reached on 1st June. This is the highest number of transactions that Ethereum has experienced since 4th May 2018.

    If we expand the timeline to one year, then the picture becomes more interesting.

    From June 2018 to August 2018, Ethereum has had around 700,000 transactions per day. However, since then, there has been a blimp in the number of transactions per day till April 2019, from which it picked up.

    This is great news for Ethereum as it shows more user activity.

    Technical Analysis

    For our technical analysis, we will be using Trading View’s charts. We will be looking at the following price charts:

    • Daily.
    • Weekly.
    • Monthly.
    • 4-Hour
    • 2-Hour
    • 1-Hour

    ETH/USD daily chart

    • This Monday has been pretty bearish as the price fell from $269.50 to $262.30. The bears failed at the $269.50 resistance level.
    • The price is consolidating in a flag formation.
    • The narrowing of the 20-day Bollinger band shows lower market volatility.
    • The market has found support on the 20-day simple moving average (SMA 20) curve.
    • The price is trending above the SMA 200, SMA 100, SMA 50, and SMA 20 curves.
    • The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator shows four consecutive bearish sessions with increasing intensity.
    • The relative strength index curve is trending at around 60.30.

    ETH/USD weekly chart

    • The price has been consolidating in a flag formation over the last three weeks.
    • This week, the price has gone down from $269.75 to $262.75.
    • The Elliot oscillator shows four straight bullish sessions with increasing intensity.

    ETH/USD monthly chart

    • After four straight bullish months, June has had a bearish start.
    • Over the month, bulls will want to gather enough momentum to breach the $307.25 resistance line.

    ETH/USD 4-hour chart

    • The 4-hour ETH/USD has had a bearish breakout from the triangle formation.
    • The breakout put the price inside the green cloud of the Ichimoku indicator.
    • It looks like the price has found support on the green cloud.
    • The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator shows three consecutive bearish sessions with increasing momentum.
    • The relative strength index is trending at 44.

    ETH/USD 2-hour chart

    • The latest sessions in the 2-hour market went down from $262.50 to $261.40.
    • The fourth last session was extremely bearish and it took the price below the lower curve of the 20-day Bollinger band, which hinted that ETH/USD was undervalued.
    • The three latest sessions took the price back into the Bollinger band and are currently trending in the flag formation.
    • The market has found support on the $260 level.
    • The widening of the Bollinger jaw shows increasing market volatility.
    • The signal line is diverging away from the MACD line showing increasing bearish momentum.
    • The Elliot oscillator shows four consecutive bearish sessions with increasing momentum.

    ETH/USD 1-hour chart

    • In the early hours on today, the bears had proper control of the market and took the price down from $269.20 to $260.35 where it found support.
    • The bulls then took the price up to $263.75 and inside the red Ichimoku cloud.
    • The hourly price was trending in the red Ichimoku cloud before it had a bearish breakout and broke past support at $261.80.
    • The current session has gone down from $262.70 to $261.
    • The relative strength index is trending at 35.65.
    • The Elliot oscillator has had ten straight bearish sessions.

    Future Behaviour

    Despite some positive news, technical analysis shows that the market is heavily favoring the bears. The bulls will need to defend the support line at $255, otherwise, the price may go down further to $250. Currently, the SMA 20 curve is providing crucial support to the bulls.

     

    Ethereum Analysis Conclusion: June 3, 2019.

     

    24th May 2019

    Ethereum bulls managed to pull the price up to $254 from $245.35 this Friday, charting a 3.5% increase in price. Let’s take a look at some fundamental and technical analysis to gauge the current state of ETH/USD.

    Ethereum Analysis

    Being one of the top three coins in the space, you can see that it has received a lot of attention on social media. So, the top news stories under the spotlight are:

    • Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) to be available for retail investors.
    • Ernst & Young Head Of Blockchain bullish on Ethereum.

    Ethereum bulls managed to pull the price up to $254 from $245.35 this Friday, charting a 3.5% increase in price. Let’s take a look at some fundamental and technical analysis to gauge the current state of ETH/USD.

    Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) for Retail Investors

    Grayscale Investments, an American digital asset manager, revealed that they managed to gain regulatory approval from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) to open its Ethereum Trust for the over-the-counter (OTC) markets under the trading symbol ETHE for retail investors.

    Grayscale first launched ETHE in 2017. It holds Ether and its value is influenced only by the value of the coin itself. Back on April 30, 2019, one share of ETHE meant being an owner of 0.09662399 Ethereum. For the last couple of years, ETHE was available only to institutional and accredited investors only with a minimum investment making at least $25,000 through private purchases. This decision by FINRA will open up new opportunities for individual investors and could potentially open up the gate to widespread adoption.

    Michael Sonnenshein, managing director of New York-based Grayscale Investments, said, “The secondary market really opens up the opportunity for any and all investors.”

    Grayscale also revealed that they would sell shares over the counter to investors in the Ethereum Trust who have held shares for a year or longer.

    Speaking about the FINRA approval, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, Grayscale’s Head of Sales and Business Development, stated:

    “We are very excited about receiving FINRA approval for Grayscale Ethereum Trust. As the largest digital currency asset manager, Grayscale continues to bring new opportunities for investors to gain exposure to digital currencies.”

    Ernst & Young Head Of Blockchain bullish on Ethereum

    Speaking at the Ethereal Summit 2019, Paul Brody, the Head of Blockchain at Ernst & Young (EY), he pointed out several positive aspects of Ethereum. He summed it all by saying, “Corporations WILL come to use Ethereum mainnet.”

    Brody also revealed that EY was working on a software dubbed “Nightfall,” which has been developed by over 200 blockchain developers and is intended to run on top of Ethereum’s network. The software will be publicly published in May and free for everyone to use. Nightfall will allow enterprise companies to use the Ethereum mainnet with private transactions on a shared ledger.

    One of the factors that have stopped a lot of enterprises from using Ethereum’s blockchain is its transparency. Since they deal with a lot of private data, they don’t want it to be visible to anyone else in the blockchain’s network. The privacy aspect of Nightfall will allow enterprises to benefit from all of the positive aspects of the public Ethereum blockchain while maintaining privacy.

    Technical Analysis

    For our technical analysis, we will be using Trading View’s charts. We will be looking at the following price charts:

    • Daily.
    • Weekly.
    • Monthly.
    • 4-Hour.
    • 2-Hour.
    • 1-Hour.

    ETH/USD daily chart

    • ETH/USD went up from $245.35 to $254 throughout Friday.
    • The daily market is currently locked up in a triangle formation.
    • For the last ten days, the bulls have failed at the $265, $260, and $255 levels, respectively.
    • Currently, the latest session is negotiating with the $255, resistance level. If the bulls can gain enough momentum, then they may even breach past the all-important $265 level.
    • The last time the market attempted to breach the $265-level, it went above the upper curve of the 20-day Bollinger band before the market corrected it for over-valuation.
    • This time, the widening of the Bollinger band will allow ETH/USD’s price to have more volatility. So, if bulls can get past $265, then they have the potential to reach $280.

    ETH/USD Weekly Chart

    • The weekly ETH/USD was trending horizontally before we had a bullish breakout last week, where the price went from $187 to $260.
    • This week saw the bears pull back the price from $260 to $253.
    • It doesn’t look like the bulls have the momentum necessary to challenge the $260-level this week.

    ETH/USD Monthly Chart

    • The monthly ETH/USD chart shows us that May has been an extremely bullish month for Ethereum.
    • Following seven consecutive bearish months, ETH/USD has had five bullish months out of the last six, four of them in a row.

    ETH/USD 4-Hour Chart

    • The 4-hour ETH/USD price is floating above the green cloud of the Ichimoku indicator (20/60/120/30).
    • The price went down and bounced up from the green cloud.
    • 4-hour ETH/USD is currently trending in an upwards channel.
    • The moving average convergence/divergence(MACD) indicator shows that the signal line has begun to diverge from the MACD line, indicating bearish momentum.
    • The 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50) curve was about to crossover the SMA 20 curve which would have been a bearish sign, but the SMA 20 curve diverged away over the last two sessions.

    ETH/USD 2-Hour Chart

    • The 2-hour ETH/USD is currently trending in a flag formation is close to the upper curve of the 20-day Bollinger band.
    • The latest candlestick shows that price has gone from $252 to $254.
    • The MACD indicator shows increasing bullish momentum.
    • The relative strength index (RSI) indicator shows that price is still trending in the neutral zone, showing upwards potential.
    • Factoring in the MACD and RSI, it won’t be a surprise if the price breaks out from the flag and crosses the upper curve of the Bollinger band.

    ETH/USD Hourly Chart

    • The hourly ETH/USD price had a bullish breakout from the green cloud of the Ichimoku indicator.
    • Currently, the hourly price is trending around the upwards trending line.
    • Ichimoku also indicates that the upcoming market sentiment could be bearish.
    • The Elliot Oscillator has had 17 consecutive bullish sessions, which shows that current market sentiment is bullish.

    Ethereum Future Behaviour

    According to technical analysis, it looks like the mid-term projection of Ethereum is bullish. Coinpredictor’s prediction algorithm says that in seven days, its price may move to $358,82, however, the long-term forecasts don’t look good since in one month it will be priced at $221.29 and in three months, $162,83. This is obviously mostly speculation. With the march towards Ethereum 2.0 going strong, the investors may want to increase their stock of Ether.

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